Dan Haren v Roy Halladay

At my day job, (yes, I do have one of those) I had a guy I work with say the Phillies should forget Roy Halladay and make a major push for Dan Haren of Arizona. While I don't think the D'Backs are going to deal the righty, it was an interesting argument. Who is the better pitcher?

I will throw out the window their age. I don't care about their age or their cost right now. I am about winning baseball games. General Managers have to worry about their investment and the possibility of said investment breaking down. Right now, I want to look at who would bring back better value to my team to make a push towards the playoffs.

Currently Roy Halladay has a win/loss record of ten and three with an ERA of 2.85 on a team that currently stands at 44 and 46. Halladay accounts for a little less than one-quarter of his team's victories. He's started 17 games and thrown 123 innings, averaging out to about seven and two-thirds per start. He has given up less than a hit per inning (118). He has struck out 106 and walked 17, a cool six to one ratio. He has three complete games, one being a shutout.

The level of competition he pitches against is tougher, that is easy to see. He is arguably in the best division in baseball. The American League averages 4.82 runs per game as compared to the National League's 4.44 runs per game. The AL East, averages 5.22 runs per game, while the NL West, Mr. Haren's division, averages 4.51 rpg. So off the bat, you would have to conclude the Halladay faces a tougher task. Against the AL East, Halladay is two and two with an ERA of 3.48.

Next you would have to take into account his last three years of pitching ( in an effor to prove this season is no an anamoly.) He averaged 32 or so starts a season with 230 innings pitched. He allowed, again on average, 220 hits per season while striking out an average of 159 per season and walking 40. His ERA over the three year span of 2006 through 2008 is 3.23. It does not take a genius to recognize Halladay as a legit number one for any team, but the numbers certainly do back it up.

Dan Haren currently sits at nine and five and an ERA of 2.01. He has allowed ONLY 89 hits over 130 innings pitched. Arizona currently holds a record of 38 and 51 in the weaker National League, though they do play the best in baseball Dodgers 18 times. Haren's victories also account for just slightly less than one-quarter of his teams wins. The righty has struck out 129 and walked just 16, an astounding eight to one K/BB ratio. He, like Halladay, has three complete games with one shutout.

As stated above, the National League does not stack up against the AL when it comes to run production. The designated hitter versus the pitcher batting debate has raged for a while and this is why. The Dodgers and Rockies do sit at seven and eight respectively in runs scored on the season, but that doesn't measure up to the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox being one, two, and three in the same rankings. With all that said, in eight games against division teams, Haren has a two and three record, but an ERA of 1.81.

Now onto Haren's stats over the past three seasons. From 2006 to 2008, he has averaged 34 starts per season. He has averaged 15 wins and a 3.51 ERA (one year in Oakland and two in Arizona) while pitching 220 or so innings. He has struck out an average of 191 batters per season while walking just 47, a K/BB ratio of about five to one. Haren too has the numbers to be the number one on most teams throughout the Major Leagues.

So, how do you choose between these two for the rest of the year? Last year, Dan Haren posted an eight and three post All-Star game record, but a 4.18 ERA in 14 starts. He gave up 106 hits in 90.1 innings pitched. On the other hand, Roy Halladay went nine and five in the second half with a 2.89 ERA, striking out 85 in 14 starts. Halladay, post All Star break, has never posted a losing record or an ERA over four. Haren has posted one below .500 record after the break (over the same three years) as well as always having an ERA over four.

So, Halladay pitches in a tougher division, gets similar, if not equal, results to Haren, and turns it on in the second half. If he were to move to the NL, you could assume his K's and ERA would increase and decrease respectively due to facing the pitcher's spot in the order. Directly comparing the two, Halladay has a couple more wins and a comparable ERA (when taking into effect the difference in offensive production in the division and leagues). Haren has a better K/BB ratio, but their numbers aren't far off at all.

As much as I like Dan Haren and would welcome him on my major league staff, Roy Halladay is the better pitcher.

Now, going back to one of my original statements. If I am taking one pitcher for the rest of the year, I want Roy Halladay. If I was advising any general manager in the league and was asked who I would rather trade for, I would most likely lean towards Haren. His contract is friendlier, he is younger and has proven to be a work horse. With that said though, Haren's second half numbers doesn't make this a slam dunk. The lean towards Haren is only a slight one, mainly because of age, contract flexibility, and less chance of being ABSOLUTELY fleeced to get him.

What do you think? Do you think Halladay is better than Haren? Do you think my stats accurately portray the two pitchers? Is the AL v NL debate overrated?