AL MVP

Only ten or so days left in the Major League Baseball regular season and I am still undecided on who should win the Most Valuable Player. As discussed before, I guess it makes the most sense to try and define what you think the MVP is for the MLB. Is it the player who had the best offensive season (evidenced with Alex Rodriguez's MVP win when playing for a last place Texas team) or is it the player on a good/great team that if you took him away, the team would fall apart.

I think more often than not, the MVP becomes the Offensive Player of the Year award. Voters look across all offensive categories and give the award to the person with the most gaudy numbers. In 2003, A-Rod batted .298 with 47 HR and 118 RBI on one of the worst teams in the American League, but he took home the hardware. His win that year may have been a product of the lack of a better candidate (Shannon Stewart finished in the top five) as much as his numbers, but still he played for a terrible team. If A-Rod had been taken away from the Rangers, they still would have been in last place.

So, in my eyes, the MVP should be the player who is most valuable to a team that has a chance to make the playoffs during the final stretch of the season. So this season, that would allow for players from the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Tigers, Rangers, and Angels to be eligible. Also, just to put a little bit more of a spin on this, I will submit that the MVP of any baseball league should have offensive statistics to support his worth. The MVP should have an On-base percentage of at least .375. Finally, I think the MVP in the modern era of baseball needs at least 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. These are completely arbitrary numbers, but they help to remove any player who was injured for a lengthy period of time or someone who switched leagues via trade winning the award that simply should be a player of the month plaque at best.

Above are the top 30 hitters in the American League (sorted by batting average). This is before applying any of my criteria. I have removed the player names and teams just to build anticipation a little bit. I am sure you know who each is, once we get to the top AL MVP candidates. So, now I will eliminate any player who is not on one of our eligible teams and does not have an OBP of .375 or above and 60 or more RBI and runs scored.

Some of the players removed include Eric Aybar, who has had a wonderful season for the Angels, Robinson Cano, who one day may win an MVP, and Nick Markakis, who, though a great player, plays for an awful team. Also removed by using my random criteria above is my darkhorse to win the MVP, Kendry Morales. The Angels first baseman has had a breakout season batting .304 with 31 HR and 99 RBI. He misses out because of his .350 OBP. He has only 40 BBs to 110 Ks. Dustin Pedroia is also removed, holding an OBP of .371. Last year's MVP would have been an even longer shot to win this year's award.

Above is the top nine players after our criteria is applied. The "RK" colum has been updated simply by sorting by batting average. It is not hard at all to figure out who number one is.

Now, how do you get to number one?

This is where it either becomes subjective or you have to delve even deeper into the numbers. What say you and me dive deeper into some important numbers for a player to be considered valuable (at least in my world). Why don't we take a look at what their numbers are with runners in scoring position and runners in scoring position with two outs?

Here are the top five remaining candidates (out of our ten from above) sorted by top batting average first. Clearly, our top candidate sticks out against these opponents. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage jump way up when it is most. Over 1/4 of his RBI have come this season with two outs and runners in scoring position. On to numbers six through nine.

Players number six and nine seem to step up the most in important offensive instances. Player six sees a steady increase in batting average, OBP, and SLG much like player number one listed above. Player nine sees a nice jump with two outs and runners in scoring position. Player number seven is consisten across all three facets of the game. Consistency has to count for something right? And number eight shows a ton of plate discipline in these arbitrary selected situations. He has more walks than strike outs, and his average, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all higher than his overall numbers. So these bottom four are bottom no more. I am going to take these bottom four along with our number one overall hitter and move them into our final five.

So, we have a top five... do you think it was the top five you see most places? Before doing this excercise I would have guessed the top five would consist of Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Kendry Morales/Bobby Abreu. And we have...

For me, three out of five isn't bad. And of course, this has been a completely abritrary and random idea of what initially goes into selecting an MVP. I think statistics are relevant to get us to this point, but from this point we need to be subjective. You have to take this opportunity to take each players worth to their team, how good they are on defense, and the legitimacy of their candidacy (as in would you surprise a casual baseball fan by saying they should win). The reason I think the latter matters is simply the nature of the "popular vote". Whenever individuals are asked to vote, by closed or open ballot, personal feelings get involved.

So, we start with the least likely to win, Bobby Abreu. Abreu is as consistent as they come. If he can pick up three more RBI over the next ten or so days, he will have 100 RBI for yet another season. He bats just around .300 and improves with runners in scoring position. Is he the MVP of the American League? No. The Angels have an excellent team and have gotten amazing years from a number of areas, making them extremely balanced. Macier Izturis, Eric Aybar, Chone Figgins, and Kendry Morales ahve all had wonderful years. There isn't a single player who would be the Angels MVP, so they cannot be the MVP of the league.

Up next is Kevin Youkilis. Youk is, for my money, the clear cut MVP of the Boston Red Sox. The man plays gold golve caliber defense at both third base and first base. He is willing to play left field or right if needed and he just straight out rakes. Many thought Youkilis was the BoSox MVP last year while his diminutive teammate walked away with the AL MVP. He has great numbers again this year, but he has been slowed by an injury or two. The Red Sox will once again make the playoffs this season, but does Youk have enough to make him the AL MVP. No. His defensive player really makes up for his numbers in the RBI category. But his strike out total is pretty high and his supporting cast is pretty darn good as well.

The reason I can say that is because of our next candidate, Victor Martinez. V-Mart was one of two core players on the Cleveland Indians dealt away at the deadline this year. Martinez is versatile and talented. He catches and plays first base and does both well enough to get by. His biggest asset of course is his bat. When a player stays within his league and joins a new team, you look to the teams record and position in the standings since he joined to find out their impact. At the trade deadline the Sox were 60-42 overall. Now they stand at 89-61. So they are 29 and 19 since Martinez joined the squad. Is that enough to win him the MVP? You guessed it... nope! V-Mart is a great player, but he has not impacted the Red Sox enough to make him worthy of the team's, let alone the AL's, MVP award.

Down to our final two... boy the excitment is building.

There is no surprise that I saved Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer as my final two for this award. I think their numbers show that they both have had huge impacts on the league and on their teams. Both play excellent defense at key positions and both do a great job of leading by example.

Teixiera has been a consistent threat ever since May, elevating his game to help bring the Yankees into first place in the AL East. He has made the Yankees infield ten times better with his play at first base and has made Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez appear to be gold glovers with his handy work around the bag. He has hit in the big spots as evidenced by his numbers with runners in scoring position and runners in scoring position with two outs. Is he the AL MVP? Any other year, I think Mark runs away with this award being the player with the best offensive numbers (and playing great defense) on the best team in the majors. But he didn't carry the Bombers until A-Rod returned to the lineup, and Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon make his job a whole lot easier getting on base as consistently as they do. Teixeira is not the AL MVP.

That leaves one player standing. Joe Mauer is this year's American League MVP. I don't say that without reservations though. Mauer missed a month of the season, so his batting average, gaudy as it may be, can be questioned slightly. He would have amassed another 60 to 80 at bats over that time span. Would he have hit as well as he has over those extra ABs? We will never know. And a week ago, I would have said that his team failed to make a run at the playoffs, but look at them now. Mauer has helped the Twins make a big surge in trying to catch the Detroit Tigers. If Detroit falters, and Minnesota makes its way into the playoffs to play New York, Mauer is an absolute shoe-in to win the title. If the Twins falter over the next week and a half of baseball, the vote may be closer, but Mauer will come out on top in the end.